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Wednesday, October 5, 2016

Goldilocks Brexit, Muslim Non-assimilation, and U.S. Economy stuff

William Hague thinks a Goldilocks Brexit it's doable, and tells us how in THE TELEGRAPH.

An excerpt:

"Introduce work permits for nationals of EU countries – yes, this is bureaucratic, but other countries manage perfectly well to monitor who is working within their borders. Make clear, however, that any of them who get a job here will be given such a permit, unless they have a criminal record, or are on a terror watch list. Say we will not help them look for work, we will not pay them out-of-work benefits, we will not give them social housing and they will have to earn the right to any in-work benefits over time, but if they find work here they can come." 

And speaking of Brexit, THE TELEGRAPH gives us 100 good reasons (in video form) for ditching the E.U.

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In THE NATIONAL INTEREST, Leon Hadar asks the reasonable question, "What if Muslim Immigrants don't want to be like us ?"

An excerpt:

"So while the liberal West has been opening its doors to Muslim immigration, shrinking Christian communities in the Middle East are being decimated and its members, facing a radical Islamic assault, are forced to leave countries where their ancestors had resided before the Arab invasion.

Liberals who adhere to the Whig interpretation of history face a dilemma. They cannot accept the idea that many Muslims living in the West, not unlike members of the ultra-Orthodox Jewish communities in Israel and the United States, don’t want to be “like us,” and if anything detest the liberal and secular values that prevail in the United States and Europe.

Yet hanging to their liberal fantasy, policymakers and pundits accuse “Islamophobes” of wrecking progress and resist considering the inevitable: as these Muslim communities grow and expand, expect not only an end to same-sex marriage. Muslim citizens would then challenge other core principles of the Enlightenment, accusing bikini-wearing women of violating the changing standards of the community."

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Should we be concerned that the CFNAI (Chicago Fed National Activity Index) has turned negative ? Russ Koesterich of Blackrock says yes, and tells us why in this SEEKING ALPHA post.

An excerpt:

"Of all the indicators I've looked at, the CFNAI has the strongest leading relationship with real gross domestic product (GDP). Over the past 35 years, the level of the CFNAI has explained approximately 40% of the variation in the following quarter's GDP (source: Bloomberg data). At the very least, the most recent reading suggests that the economic - and by extension earnings - rebound that the market is expecting in the second half may not materialize."

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Is your ETF or ETN on the brink of collapse ? Check out the September edition of Ron Rowland's ETF Deathwatch.

An excerpt:

"ETF Deathwatch logged its largest one-month drop in membership ever with a net reduction of 32 products.  The count for September stands at 460 (361 ETFs and 99 ETNs), the lowest level of the past four months.  The decline does not change the overall upward trend. The count has zoomed 41% higher from a level of 325 in just the past 12 months.

Unfortunately, the reduction in names on the list is not the direct result of products getting healthier.  Instead, the majority of the decline is attributed to deaths and liquidations of ETFs and ETNs.   However, this may be an indirect sign that the overall industry is getting healthier by eliminating its weaker members.  With the median ETF holding just $72 million in assets, a level many observers believe to be unprofitable, a clean bill of health is still a long way off for the majority of products.

A record 41 closures occurred in August, but only 25 of those products were on ETF Deathwatch.  The other 16 closures were products with enough assets to exclude them from the list, which is evidence suggesting the current criteria may be too conservative.  Nine new names were added to the list, and 16 came off due to increased assets, an upturn in trading activity, or both.

Despite the large change in membership this month, the demographics of the members changed very little.  The average asset level of products on ETF Deathwatch declined from $7.2 million to $7.1 million, and the quantity of products with less than $2 million in assets shrunk from 93 to 90.  The average age increased from 47.9 to 48.5 months, and the number of products more than 5 years of age dropped from 197 to 183.

Here is the Complete List of 460 ETFs and ETNs on ETF Deathwatch for September 2016  compiled using the objective ETF Deathwatch Criteria."

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