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Thursday, July 14, 2011

Hague Making It Harder to Oust Gadhafi

The Hague--specifically the International Criminal Court--is making it harder, not easier, to remove, or expedite the exit of, Gadhafi from Libya. How ? George Friedman explains in his article, Libya and the Problem with The Hague, an excerpt from which is reporduced below with the permission of STRATFOR.

Regardless of what a country’s leader has done, he or she holds political power, and the transfer of that power is inherently a political process. What the ICC has done since 2002 — and the ICTY to an extent before that — is to make the political process moot by making amnesty impossible. It is not clear if any authority exists to offer and honor an amnesty. However, the ICC is a product of the United Nations, and the authority of the United Nations lies in the UNSC. Though there is no clear precedent, there is an implicit assumption that the UNSC would be the entity to offer a negotiated amnesty with a unanimous vote. In other words, the political process is transferred from Libya to the UNSC, where any number of countries might choose to abort the process for their own political ends. So the domestic political process is trumped by The Hague’s legal process, which can only be trumped by the UNSC’s political process. A potentially simple end to a civil war escalates to global politics.

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