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Tuesday, February 15, 2011

What's at Risk if Egypt Unrest Spreads ?

Clearly the supply of oil from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well.

And how much oil are we talking about ?  Dian Chu provides these numbers in her SEEKING ALPHA post, 'Crude Oil: Egypt Contagion and a Tale of Two Risk Premiums ' :

Among those countries, eight (Saudi Arabia, Libya, Algeria, Iraq, Iran, Qatar, Kuwait, and UAE) are OPEC members. Should riots erupt throughout MENA, it would mean 35% of the world’s oil production, or about 29.6 million bpd, would be at risk. Not to mention these eight OPEC nations also hold about a 75% share of global oil reserves, and two more OPEC members – Nigeria and Angola—are just south of MENA.

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